The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7 per cent from 6.5 per cent earlier on buoyant domestic demand and higher capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, however, flagged protracted geopolitical turmoil and global economic fragmentation as risks to the growth outlook. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent in Friday's monetary policy statement.
The Centre's retreat from the farm laws is likely to have a significant bearing on the fate of laws that the Centre has made, for instance, in labour and electricity, predicts A K Bhattacharya.
India's GDP growth will slow down to 5.5 per cent in FY24 from the 6.9 per cent expected in the current fiscal 2022-23, a Swiss brokerage said on Wednesday. The slowdown was attributed to slowing global growth and tightening of monetary policies in the report by economists at UBS India. It said India will be among the "lesser affected economies" in the world, but made it clear that the world's fifth largest economy is not immune from global headwinds.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for the current financial year, lower than 5.4 per cent in the last fiscal. Assuming a normal monsoon this year, CPI (consumer price index-based) inflation for the current year is projected at 4.5 per cent, with Q1 at 4.9 per cent, Q2 at 3.8 per cent, Q3 at 4.6 per cent, and Q4 at 4.5 per cent.
'The robust tax collections give the finance minister a fair amount of headroom for an expansionary fiscal policy.'
Many who track the ministry and the technology sector closely believe that the space won't see much impact on the policymaking side, but the gestation time for regulations might get long, as now there could be a wider consensus-building exercise on policy matters under a coalition government.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday kept key repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent in view of rising inflation and faint signs of economic growth amid gradual lifting of coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown. The central bank's newly-constituted monetary policy committee (MPC) began its three-day meeting on October 7 and maintained the stance as accommodative. It also kept the reverse repo rate unchanged at 3.35 per cent.
The avoidable stresses and strains in ties helped in one way. It showed for the entire region how a matured India handled diplomatic relations, especially with a smaller and suspicious neighbour, with practised dignity and patience, unruffled by provocations in word, deed and action, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The BJP losing its outright majority and relying on allies to form a government could pose challenges for the more ambitious elements of reform agenda like land and labour, Fitch Ratings said in a note on Wednesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP lost its majority for the first time since 2014, winning 240 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel began its three-day deliberations on Monday to decide the next monetary policy amid expectations that the central bank will maintain status quo on the benchmark interest rate in the backdrop of global scare due to the new coronavirus variant Omicron. Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to announce the policy resolution on Wednesday. If the RBI maintains status quo in policy rates on Wednesday, it would be the ninth consecutive time since the rate remains unchanged.
Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday downgraded the US government's top credit rating to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated debt ceiling negotiations. The development caused a flutter across equity markets, with most leading frontline global equity indices trading weak. Back home, the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 lost over 1 per cent each in intra-day deals to hit a low of 65,751.53 and 19,517.55 levels, respectively.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday announced income tax relief for the middle class, a Rs 2 lakh crore outlay for job creation schemes over the next five years and a spending splurge for states run by her party's new coalition partners as she unveiled the Modi 3.0 government's first budget after the general elections.
'The private sector believes that some enablers in labour-intensive sectors like apparel, toys, tourism, and media retail, can unlock a lot of jobs.'
Passenger vehicle wholesales in India touched a record high of 42,18,746 units in the financial year 2023-24, registering a year-on-year growth of 8.4 per cent on the back of robust demand for utility vehicles, industry body SIAM said on Friday. As per the latest data issued by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), the overall passenger vehicle dispatches stood at 38,90,114 units in fiscal year 2022-23. Two-wheeler sales were up 13.3 per cent last fiscal at 1,79,74,365 units, as compared to 1,58,62,771 units in the financial year 2022-23.
'The BJP's numbers in this government are almost the same as those enjoyed by the Congress under P V Narasimha Rao when the reform process was kicked off in 1991.' 'As before, the only constraints on the prime minister's actions are internal, not external.' 'They come from his own assessment of the political consequences of any action,' points out Mihir S Sharma.
Experts disagree with the idea and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which has the sole right to print money, is not comfortable with it as well.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday revised upwards the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent on rising private consumption and revival of demand in rural areas. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) placed India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24. "During 2024-25 so far, domestic economic activity has maintained resilience," he said, adding that manufacturing activity continues to gain ground on the back of strengthening domestic demand.
IT and interest rate-sensitive bank, realty, and auto stocks ended with sharp gains.
Looking under the hood, I see India on the terrible, but commonplace, road to prosperity failure, warns Rathin Roy.
'I found it unbelievable that L&T said 45,000 jobs were waiting to be filled because of unavailability of suitable skillsets.' 'So, when the Opposition sweepingly says there are no jobs, I'm sorry... I'm not saying it's raining jobs, but there are jobs. The (skill) gap has to be bridged.'
The Budget should use the extra RBI surplus to better effect, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
In the midst of third wave of COVID-19, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has come up with an impactful Budget which is balanced, fiscally prudent and growth-oriented, the USA India Chamber of Commerce has said. President of the Boston-based USA India Chamber of Commerce (USAIC) Karun Rishi, however, said it is a matter of concern that the budget lacks tangible measures to increase revenue generation. "Opting to keep the fiscal deficit at 6.9 per cent and increase capital expenditure by 35 per cent is a masterstroke. "The annual budget estimates the effective capital expenditure of Rs 10.68 lakh crore in 2022-23, making up about 4.1 per cent of the GDP," he said. "A phenomenal increase in the government's capital expenditure is likely to facilitate the expenditures on infrastructure and create jobs.
Consensus remained elusive on a common BRICS currency as business leaders from the five-bloc nations debated the pivotal issue at a business forum on the periphery of a summit of the five-member bloc being hosted here by South Africa. In their two addresses at the Summit so far, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have made no or scant references to the issue either. "The BRICS Business Forum discussed the international payments system in detail. "Participants also debated the question of whether a BRICS currency is possible or desirable, with strong views expressed both for and against and little consensus reached," Sim Tshabalala, chief executive of Standard Bank Group, told several hundred captains of industry from the partner countries and over 40 other nations across the globe at the Summit.
Monetary Policy Committee keeps key interest rate (repo) unchanged at 4% for 7th consecutive time; Consequently, reverse repo rate too remains unchanged at 3.35%; Bank rate also remains same at 4.25%;
Retail inflation declined to a five-month low of 4.85 per cent in March mainly due to cooling food prices, inching towards the Reserve Bank's target of 4 per cent, according to official data released on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.09 per cent in February and 5.66 per cent in March 2023. Previously, CPI-based inflation was the lowest at 4.87 per cent in October 2023.
'We have essentially tried to set out an agenda for the next five years and it, in essence, represents the political commitment to that agenda.'
IT company Infosys on Thursday said its consolidated profit jumped 30 per cent to Rs 7,969 crore in the fourth quarter ended March 2024. The company posted a profit of Rs 6,128 crore in the same period a year ago, according to a regulatory filing. The consolidated revenue of Infosys during the reported quarter increased by 1.3 per cent to Rs 37,923 crore from Rs 37,441 crore in the same quarter a year ago.
A combination of factors, including heavy investments in US Treasury bonds and dollar sales at a healthy profit, facilitated the Indian central bank in transferring a record surplus of Rs 2.11 trillion to the government for 2023-24 (FY24). The RBI's dollar purchases increased in FY24, supported by robust capital inflows endorsing the economy's health.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said the country's economic growth remains a priority for the government, as inflation has come down to a manageable level. Job creation and equitable distribution of wealth remain the other focus areas, she said at India Ideas Summit. "Some of course are red-lettered (priorities), some may not be. Red-lettered ones would of course be jobs, equitable wealth distribution and making sure India is moving on the path of growth.
India's rank in the World Bank's ease of doing business index cannot get better unless more attention is paid to bringing about procedural reforms in the way states run their governments and provide various approvals for trade and industry, says A K Bhattacharya.
There hasn't been any dramatic moment in the first act (the Budget) but nobody would complain. It's par for the course as long as the figures don't change in the main Budget, which will be presented after general elections.
'The nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 may be revised upwards on higher growth expectations.'
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
Xi Jinping's recent actions in South Asia have amply demonstrated the disastrous impact of China's embrace, observes Jayadeva Ranade, the retired senior RA&W officer and China expert.
The United Nations on Wednesday pared down India's growth forecast by 20 basis points to 5.8 per cent for 2023 calendar year, citing higher interest rates and risks of recession in the developed world weighing on investment and exports. "Economic growth in India is projected to moderate in 2023, with higher interest rates weighing on investment and slower global growth weakening exports," it said in its latest World Economic Situation and Prospects report. The report has projected global trade to contract 0.4 per cent and the world economy to grow at 1.9 per cent in 2023.
It's time India re-visited its Western alliances for the attitude and approach that the West reserves for the nation when it comes to security cooperation of the kind that they might not have visualised outside of China, India's bug-bear, asserts N Sathiya Moorthy.
The government is expected to defer the mega initial public offering (IPO) of LIC to the next financial year as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has dampened fund managers' interest in the public issue, market experts said on Sunday. The government was looking to sell 5 per cent stake in Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) this month, which could have fetched over Rs 60,000 crore to the exchequer. The IPO would have helped meet the curtailed divestment target of Rs 78,000 crore this fiscal.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent and decided to continue with its accommodative stance against the backdrop of an elevated level of inflation.
Thrust on infrastructure and capital expenditure is expected to continue in the Union Budget for FY25.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
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